The Hidden Truth About Our Collapsing Birth Rates - Mads Larsen

Here are the top 10 key takeaways from Chris Williamson's conversation with Mads Larsen discussing the alarming decline in global birth rates and its profound implications for society.

1. Fertility rates are at crisis levels

Many developed countries are experiencing alarmingly low fertility rates. Norway has a rate of 1.4 children per woman, while women report wanting 2.4 children on average. With a fertility rate of 1.4, a country loses about one-third of its generational size per generation. This means that in just three generations, 70% of the population could disappear if rates remain stable.

The situation is even more dire in countries like South Korea, where fertility rates have fallen to 0.7. At that rate, a population of 100 people would be reduced to just 4 people in three generations. Leading experts believe this trend will continue to worsen rather than improve naturally.

2. Modern dating markets are increasingly dysfunctional

A key factor contributing to low fertility is the difficulty people have finding suitable partners. The current dating environment represents the first time in human history where partner choice is completely individualized rather than arranged or strongly guided by family and community.

This modern dating market creates a growing stratification among men. Some men at the top receive increasing mating opportunities while men at the bottom are increasingly excluded from both relationships and casual encounters. Dating apps amplify this effect by giving women access to thousands of potential partners, potentially skewing perceptions of available options.

3. Evolutionary mismatch explains dating difficulties

Humans evolved with two different attraction systems: a promiscuous attraction system and a pair-bonding attraction system. The promiscuous system incentivizes women to be highly selective, favoring the most successful males for genetic benefits. The pair-bonding system is more egalitarian, promoting partnerships between people of similar value.

In traditional societies, cultural structures helped reconcile these different attraction systems to ensure functional mating. Without these structures, modern dating environments tend to trigger the promiscuous attraction system more strongly. This creates unrealistic expectations and makes stable pair-bonding more difficult to achieve.

4. Female empowerment has unintended fertility consequences

The empowerment of women through education and economic independence is broadly positive for society. However, it has created an unintended side effect related to fertility. As women become more financially independent, they have less need for male partners for economic support or security.

The emotional and romantic attraction that evolved to motivate women to pair-bond with men developed in more resource-constrained environments where male support could be essential for survival. In modern prosperous societies, that attraction mechanism doesn't create sufficient motivation for many women to partner with men they perceive as less than ideal.

5. Cultural shifts have removed pro-natalist pressures

Modern society has shifted from ideologies that strongly promoted marriage and child-bearing to what Larsen calls "confluent love" - relationships based on convenience, reward, and individualistic self-realization. People stay together only as long as it's mutually beneficial.

Previous ideologies, such as "romantic love" that dominated from the early 1800s until 1968, socialized people to believe they needed to find their "other half" and form lifelong bonds. While restrictive in many ways, these ideologies created social pressure to reproduce. With contraception and changing values, having children has become truly optional with minimal social consequences for choosing not to.

6. The problem is self-reinforcing

As birth rates fall, fewer children are visible in society. This creates a feedback loop where each generation becomes less familiar with children and parenthood, potentially reducing their desire to have children themselves. In Norway, women currently desire 2.4 children but have 1.4 on average.

Experts believe that the next generation will likely want fewer than 2.4 children as smaller families become normalized. This creates a self-reinforcing downward spiral that accelerates over time. Without intervention, societies may continue losing population at increasing rates.

7. Economic incentives alone don't solve the problem

Simply providing financial support for parents doesn't significantly increase birth rates. Norway already offers what is likely the most generous package of parental benefits in human history, yet its fertility rate remains critically low at 1.4 children per woman.

In the few instances where financial incentives have shown small positive effects, the cost per additional child born can reach millions of dollars, making such approaches financially unsustainable as a comprehensive solution. More fundamental cultural and structural changes are likely needed.

8. Climate concerns can mask population concerns

Many environmentalists and policy makers have been reluctant to address falling birth rates because they associate population reduction with environmental benefits. This makes it difficult to generate appropriate concern about demographic collapse.

However, solving the climate crisis requires technological innovation and social cooperation that may be undermined by aging, declining societies. Collapsing populations likely won't have the resources or stability needed to develop and implement climate solutions. Both challenges need to be addressed simultaneously rather than treating them as competing priorities.

9. Academic and political resistance blocks solutions

Researchers and government officials working on fertility issues often avoid portraying low birth rates as a serious problem. Some fear that doing so might empower right-wing political forces or trigger policies restricting women's freedoms. Others worry about appearing racist if they express concern about declining Western populations.

This creates a situation where the severity of the problem is downplayed. Even experts who understand the demographic mathematics hesitate to communicate the full implications. In Norway, fertility researchers have taken the puzzling approach of waiting to see if women in their late 30s and early 40s will suddenly have unprecedented numbers of children to compensate for earlier delays.

10. Experimental approaches are needed

Addressing the fertility crisis will require cultural experimentation and new approaches to dating, partnership formation, and family structures. Solutions should build on each society's cultural legacy rather than imposing universal approaches. Scandinavian countries may be particularly well-positioned to lead this experimentation.

Larsen argues that any solutions must preserve women's freedoms and equality while finding new ways to increase birth rates. This requires honest national conversations about the existential threat of population collapse and a willingness to question even deeply held modern values about individualism and personal choice.

The challenge is unprecedented in human history. Unlike external threats that naturally unite populations, demographic collapse through low fertility doesn't trigger instinctive defensive responses. Solutions will need to be created through deliberate analysis and experimentation.